Target holds at 250 while earnings forecasts move higher
Goldman Sachs kept its price target on Nvidia unchanged after the company’s latest earnings report, but raised the bank’s profit expectations, signaling greater confidence in the forward earnings path even as the stock sold off. After Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 results on Feb. 25, Goldman reiterated a buy rating and maintained a $250 target while lifting earnings estimates by about 2% on average. The bank also said its 2026 projections sit well above broader Wall Street expectations.
The market reaction has been negative in the short term. Nvidia shares were down 9.4% to $177.19 as of Feb. 27, based on the latest trade shown on Nvidia’s investor relations site. The decline followed a stretch of repeated beats and strong guidance, reinforcing a pattern where the stock has struggled to hold gains immediately after results.
Q4 results and Q1 guidance extend the growth narrative
Nvidia’s fiscal Q4 numbers showed that the company continues to operate at a scale that is difficult for rivals to match. Revenue came in at $68.13 billion, up 73% year over year and ahead of a $66.21 billion consensus estimate from LSEG. On profitability, Nvidia posted non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.62, up 82% year over year and above the $1.53 estimate. GAAP EPS was $1.76, up 98% year over year.
Guidance also reset near-term expectations. For fiscal Q1 2027, Nvidia forecast revenue of $78.0 billion plus or minus 2%, implying a range of about $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion. That compared with a Street estimate around $72.78 billion. Nvidia guided to a GAAP gross margin of 74.9% and a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%, each with a plus or minus 50 basis point band.
The company’s growth engine remains concentrated in one segment. Data center revenue reached $62.3 billion, up 75% year over year and 22% quarter over quarter, representing nearly 91% of total quarterly revenue. Professional visualization revenue was $1.3 billion, up 159% year over year and 74% quarter over quarter, with Nvidia linking the strength to demand connected to Blackwell.
Blackwell adoption and hyperscaler demand shape expectations
Goldman’s higher earnings view aligns with a broader bet that Nvidia can widen its moat as next-generation AI systems are trained on Blackwell and deployed at scale. The bank’s analyst expects competitive advantages to strengthen as more customers move from earlier platforms to Blackwell-based infrastructure.
Company commentary highlighted a key operational marker tied to that transition. Nvidia said nearly a year has passed since the release of its Grace Blackwell GB200 NVL72 systems and that roughly 9 gigawatts of infrastructure on Blackwell are now deployed and being used by major cloud providers, hyperscalers, AI model developers, and enterprises. If sustained, that deployment pace would reinforce the view that demand is not limited to experimentation but is translating into large, power-intensive buildouts.
Investor positioning remains a supporting data point. Recent 13F filings have indicated large hedge funds adding to positions, including Ken Griffin’s Citadel increasing Nvidia exposure by $2.19 billion and Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater adding $253 million. Those moves suggest some institutions are willing to add during volatility rather than reduce exposure after a strong quarter.
Post-earnings volatility persists despite long-run outperformance
Nvidia’s near-term price action has been weaker than the broader market across several recent windows. Over one week, Nvidia returned -6.65% versus -0.44% for the S and P 500. Over one month, Nvidia was -6.01% versus -1.43%. Over six months, Nvidia was -2.43% while the S and P 500 gained 6.13%. Year to date, Nvidia was -4.99% compared with 0.49% for the index.
Longer horizons still show a large gap. Over one year, Nvidia returned 47.47% versus 17.35% for the S and P 500. Over three years, Nvidia gained 653.97% compared with 72.74%. Over five years, Nvidia rose 1,191.99% while the index gained 80.49%.
Commentary around the recurring post-earnings selloff has focused on how polarized investor narratives can be around AI. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang addressed the dynamic after the company’s fiscal Q3 earnings during an internal meeting, as reported by Business Insider and cited by TheStreet’s Vuk Zdinjak. Huang summarized the market framing by saying: “If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there’s an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble.”
Goldman’s decision to lift earnings estimates while keeping the price target steady suggests the bank is looking past near-term swings and focusing on whether the Blackwell ramp and data center spending can sustain elevated growth and margins. For investors, the key debate is whether the recent drawdown is a valuation reset within a strong cycle or an early signal that expectations have become harder to exceed.
