oil prices near $100 kept markets on edge Monday as U.S. index futures moved higher while energy traders digested a third week of conflict. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, Dow futures gained 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.8%. In oil, U.S. crude slipped 1.5% to $97.21 a barrel, while Brent held near $103.35, still up more than 40% since the war began.
Hormuz disruption keeps supply shock in play
Markets are still pricing the same core risk: the effective shutdown of cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor that typically carries roughly a fifth of global oil shipments. Iran has continued strikes using drones and missiles against targets that include Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf Arab energy infrastructure, while the strait has seen only limited tanker movement. Analysts say producers are cutting output because crude cannot clear the bottleneck.
Rystad Energy estimates that more than 12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day have been taken offline in just over a week since the closure. Commentary from Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management captured the mood, describing a market operating with limited visibility, a “fog” shaped by security risk, tanker availability, and insurance constraints. The longer the disruption persists, the more likely higher energy costs spread into freight, manufacturing, and household budgets.
Emergency stock release fails to calm traders
Governments are trying to blunt the shock. Member states of the International Energy Agency are making a record 400 million barrels available from emergency reserves, but prices remained elevated despite the headline number. One reason is arithmetic: a disruption measured in the tens of millions of barrels per day can absorb even an historic release quickly if normal flows do not resume.
With crude still around $100 and volatility high, investors are balancing two timelines at once. The first is near-term supply logistics, including how many tankers can move safely and how quickly production can normalize. The second is policy response, including whether governments expand reserve releases or offer additional shipping support measures that reduce risk premiums embedded in energy prices.
Equities look past oil, but rate cuts get harder
In early U.S. trading, chip and data storage names led premarket gains, with Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, and Intel rising roughly 3% to 5%. A major deal in self-storage also moved shares: National Storage Affiliates jumped about 26% after agreeing to be acquired by Public Storage in an all-stock transaction valued around $10.5 billion, while Public Storage fell about 3.5%.
Still, the macro constraint remains inflation. Higher energy prices complicate the Federal Reserve’s path to lower rates, and markets are not expecting a cut at this week’s policy meeting. Recent U.S. data already pointed to sticky price pressure even before the oil shock. The Commerce Department’s latest snapshot showed headline inflation at 2.8% in January, while core inflation excluding food and energy rose 3.1%, the strongest increase in nearly two years. If crude stays elevated, investors will likely push expected easing further out.
Global markets mixed as Asia rebounds and Europe steadies
International markets were choppy but broadly steadier than last week’s swings. In Europe, Germany’s DAX was up about 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 was flat, and Britain’s FTSE 100 gained around 0.5%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped about 0.1%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose roughly 1.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained about 1.5% after stronger-than-expected February data in China, though Shanghai’s Composite dipped about 0.3%.
The immediate market test is whether crude can remain below recent peaks while the strait stays constrained. If oil settles at high levels rather than spiking, equities may keep attempting a grind higher. If supply losses persist and crude re-accelerates, inflation expectations and rates will likely reprice quickly across global assets.
